Page Contents

The Sustainability Quandary

The Information Society as Panacea?

The Search for a Bridging Strategy

No Sustainable Development without Sustainable Transport

Sustainability - A Moving Target

Transport/Telecommunications Trade-offs as a Bridging Strategy

Telework as a Leading Edge

For the purposes of this brainstorming piece, we do not need to get lost in the interstices of the largely academic debates that have for the better part of a decade had experts endlessly circling each other and quarreling about the definitions of sustainability. We can define it for ourselves with as much common sense as we can muster, and then get back to work for policy purposes.

Perhaps the best way to reach a satisfactory understanding of what a sustainable system is supposed to be for present purposes, can be first to point up several telling examples of what is clearly unsustainable. A classic example often cited is that of a metropolitan area or region that is withdrawing water from underground acquifers faster than they can recharge, thus putting the future of the whole region in question. Another is to build houses on a barrier beach or flood plain. This brings us to the matter of ‘carrying capacity’ of land, bodies of water and nature more generally, and on to such considerations as thresholds, discontinuities, and irreversiblities. A sustainable system for our purposes is, quite simply, one that does not collapse under its own weight after a few or more years.

The authors of the First Annual Report of the EU Expert Group on Sustainable Cities (EC, Brussels, 1994) provided what we view to be quite a good point of departure for these considerations:

Our present patterns of economic activity and human behavior in both advanced and developing countries are of course demonstrably not sustainable in a number of respects. It is thus urgently necessary to do something about it.

We know, however, that sustainability can be achieved only via major and massive increases in the efficiency of materials and energy use. From the vantage of the planet as a whole, neither small percentage improvements (while certainly not to be disdained) nor ‘holding the line’ will be enough. This, the fact that what is needed is very great changes in the status quo, and not just a bit of housekeeping and tidying, is what makes the challenge before us at once so great and so daunting. It is hard to be optimistic under the circumstances.

The concept of sustainability -- the ability of a system or social arrangement to survive in its ecological, economic, social and political spheres without being undermined by internal contradictions or auto-destructive behavior -- is something that calls for a higher order of human consciousness and responsibility than mere passive acceptance of the status quo and present trends. Despite technical and scientific uncertainty concerning many of the details of the sustainability debate, the underlying values of fore-sight, prudent behavior and responsibility for the world we live in and that of future generations suffice to provide a clear basis for action.

The uncomfortable truth is, however, that virtually every major public initiative taken or announced to date in this broad area has failed to offer realistic promise of attaining the extremely large efficiency increases that must be made if we are to move toward this extremely challenging goal. Experience of the last few years has made it clear that an apparently unbridgeable gap exists between the basic sustainability objectives (at least those that the leading edge of the science and policy communities claim we should all be trying to achieve), and our actual conduct and choices in daily life. This breach is, in fact, the fundamental dilemma of sustainability, and this is precisely the challenge which now needs to be directly addressed and resolved.

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The emergence of the "Information Society" provides some grounds for (cautious) optimism concerning our collective ability to negotiate the heretofore quite unlikely move to a more sustainable society in our time. In the broad area of technology and society that it encompasses, enormous order-of-magnitude improvements are already being achieved in the performance of materials and services. This wave of innovation and accomplishment is still in its early stages. Beyond these, there is a to-now largely unrealized potential for bringing together and ‘cascading’ these new technologies in new synergistic ways which will permit productivity improvements in many sectors on a scale and at a speed never possible in the past.

The potential for approaching the sustainability objectives through positive actions such as those which these new technologies and approaches permit is something which needs to be kept to the fore, because it holds the key to the potential success of this approach. Most past arguments for sustainability have stumbled because they keyed on proposals which targeted reductions in current levels of use of inefficient technology, without any increase in the productivity of materials and energy (ex., a car ban in a city without accompanying measures to absorb and satisfy mobility and access demands). But this need not be: technologies and organizational approaches now exist which offer potential solutions that go far beyond the reduced use of inefficient technologies (in this case, such things as telework, intelligent routing systems, access-oriented answers vs. mobility-oriented, etc.). This positive potential exists in virtually every aspect of our productive and people-serving systems.

Without wishing to trot out all the usual house arguments that lay claims for its exceptional growth, etc. potential, nonetheless it will be useful to recall briefly some of the broad lines of the reasoning behind the choice of what some call the ‘Information Society’, and others the Electronic, Third Industrial Revolution, etc., etc., as the main lever in this particular push toward sustainable development. At the heart of the Information Society lie most of the fastest developing areas of science, technology, business and human practice in these closing years of the century. In addition to telecommunications and information processing, its scope covers such things as microelectronics, integrated circuits, new materials developments, control systems, robotics, software engineering, and even biotech -- all of which are growing at rates never achieved at any previous time in history. The most oft-cited indicator that reflects the speed of this progression is of course ‘Moore’s Law’, which states that the cost of computing and storage is reduced by 50% every eighteen months. There are many other such indicators, all based on actual achievements and a number of which even substantially exceed the observable performances that accord to Moore’s Law. These are not isolated or lab-only developments. One striking example is the fact of Internet’s traffic which is currently doubling roughly every nine months. These are phenomena that are occurring in a manner which is universal and bringing with them a whole universe of new ways of doing things and organizing ourselves.

These technologies are revolutionary above all -- and in sharp distinction with most technological progress in the past -- in which they (a) involve relatively small amounts of materials resources, and (b) permit substantial dematerialisation in many domains. They are not (for better or worse) waiting for government policy decisions to shape either the pace or direction of their development. Aspects of these technologies do of course depend on government in some ways, but overall they are progressing at the speed they are without much reference to government positions on most of the issues involved.

To a much greater extent than any previous generation of technology, they are going to be directly transferable to the countries of the Third World, and will probably do more than anything that we have passed on to them in the past to ensure their rapid development. The potential for the Information Society to permit the developing world to achieve something much closer to sustainable development than anything that has been observed or planned for till now is something that is very real. It is likely however, that without the careful attention of today’s advanced economic nations -- and above all their examples as sincere and enthusiastic practitioners of this new model of economy and society -- the full potential of this transition will not be achieved.

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It is often claimed that the main reason for this gap lies in some combination of the selfishness of individuals, the breakdown of the family and the resultant dearth of responsibility in terms of providing for future generations, the lack of any broader sense of ethics on the part of the business community, or the short-sighted nature of government and politicians in these closing days of the 20th century. All of this is undeniably part of the problem, but only part.

Perhaps a better explanation for this breach has been that the fact that the various calls for sustainability over the last years have either been too vague, insufficiently cognizant of the realities of the human condition, or so ambitious, far-reaching and complicated that most reasonable and otherwise responsible people and institutions are put off rather than mobilized for action. Put in other words, it would seem fair to say that the ambitions of the main proponents of sustainability have considerably outstripped their knowledge of what makes people and society tick.

Our challenge now is: how to get from here (i.e., a notoriously unsustainable combination of practices and process) to there (at least a step in the direction of what might eventually prove to be a sustainable world). What we need, in effect, is to identify some sort of bridging strategy -- some sort of practical mechanism or series of steps that can move us toward a transition. In order to accomplish this, we have to leave end-state thinking behind us, and try to see if we can come up with something that properly reflects the foibles and the realities of the world we live in.

One point that has become clear to all by now is that, in the final analysis, sustainability is unlikely to be achieved through unilaterally mandated government regulations or laws alone. National and international government agencies have a role to play, but in the final analysis whatever is done must flow from and build on the awarenesses and freely made choices of individuals and groups throughout society. We interpret this to mean that in the push to sustainability the task at hand now is to develop and demonstrate acceptable alternatives in many aspects of daily life -- because sticks and threats alone will not suffice. These alternatives and incentives must be addressed to the individual citizens and groups that constitute our societies, including both public and private sectors as well as all those combinations and groupings that lie between the two.

While this is an effort of many parts, we propose to target as an immediate priority a first stage objective that is concrete, easily understandable, and that it lends itself to measuring, monitoring and fine-tuning as we go along. Furthermore, we propose all aspects of this collaborative effort will proceed as an entirely voluntary undertaking, not something mandated by law or ordinances, but targeted and met by those people and institutions who show themselves to be courageous and far-sighted enough to undertake it.

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Here against this background is one cryptic line of reasoning for an effective, measurable bridging strategy based on sustainability as its point of departure, which is in this summary presentation shorn of detail but hopefully not of the basic common sense and strong linkages which underlie it:

Sustainable Development => Sustainable Transport: Sustainability cannot be achieved without sustainable transport. This perhaps surprising statement has two main sub-parts:

1. By the time you add all that is required to build and maintain the transport infrastructure to what is required to keep everything running over it, you have encompassed a quite substantial share of the environmental and other negative impacts of the overall socio-technical system that needs to be retrofitted.
2. The transport system is that part of the global socio-technical system that is most amenable to rapid change -- we think of it, thus, as the necessary "hinge" or "trampoline" to sustainability.

The concept of sustainability has been tossed around in transport research and policy circles for about ten years now, and -- as in virtually all sectors -- has for the most part it made close to zero inroads in practical policy discussions. One expert, Thomas Deen of the US Transportation Research Board, perhaps the preeminent grouping of engineers and technicians concerned with transport matters in the United States, makes a good point concerning the ‘politics of sustainability’ in an article in the TRB Newsletter of October 1994: "There is an unresolved conflict among values (e.g., transportation, environment, life style) -- and neither the political nor the public will exists to support policies, regardless of their environmental benefits, that involve significant sacrifice or depart radically from the status quo." This is an important and perplexing point which goes a long way to explaining why the concept has had only limited impact in most places until now. Deen goes on from there to express the widely held opinion that the only thing that might conceivably "galvanize public opinion in ways that dramatically alter the enabling environment for transportation policy and make revolutionary changes politically feasible" would be via some sort of major crisis. On this base he then goes on to opine that "major changes to the enabling environment will (have to) be crisis driven" (a conclusion which we regard as quite dangerous.) .

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Regardless of how it is now defined, our views of what constitutes sustainable transportation will change over time, reflecting changes in technology, resource availability, and new knowledge about the environmental aspects of transportation.

Now here is something we can work with! With this illusive target called sustainable transport, the only thing of which we can reasonably be sure today (other than the fact that the system we currently have in hand is clearly not sustainable) is that our perceptions of what all this is about are going to have to change and develop as we move ahead. Our new policy approach must, therefore, give ample room for this expanding vision. It is an opportunity not to be missed.

Pushing Out the Outer Edge: Dean and his associates argue for more research -- understandable given that the main thrust at the TRB is research. However, in our view this is far too passive an approach given the important and rising stakes. We find more help in a Letter to the Editor of the TRB News (April 1995) by Nabil Hourani, an engineer with the Massachusetts Highway Department, who suggests an entirely different path for policy makers which he refers to as compound change: "the daily accumulation of beneficial actions adjusted toward the long-term goal of a sustainable environment". This is what we believe to be the proper framework for policy for the sector. With this in view, we now go on to describe briefly the main characteristics of what Hourani and others propose as ‘third alternative solutions’.

Third-alternative solutions for a sustainable system: The proposed path for change under this new paradigm, therefore, would not be crisis-driven but instead guided by new attitudes and visions. The following criteria need to be met to bring about change:

• Conservation and reconversion of existing assets and re-use of existing resources (systems, structure, and materials).
• Flexibility in the application of available techniques and technologies. For example, less emphasis on end-state and more on design-build-design projects, performance-based contracts, etc.
• Agreement among all involved parties on sustainability goals through a committed action based on communication and coordination. For example agencies with different but ultimately related functions must cooperatively plan, streamline, and participate in targeted projects.
• Use of a consistent approach and a comprehensive plan of action for achieving these goals in a timely manner and assessing reasonable options, focusing on result-based goals, and meeting deadlines for each step along the way.
• Making research and development projects fully multidisciplinary. For example, many R&D projects should not be restricted to separate fields and disciplines, but should be conducted in an interdisciplinary effort and environment.

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The transport sector -- which encompasses not only the operation of existing systems, services and infrastructure but also their production, maintenance and disposal -- is selected as at least a first round target for discussion under this first major practical international effort toward sustainability, on the grounds that

• It is among the greatest sources of resource use and abuse in our current mix of activities,
• Physical transport is a hugely inefficient sink of resources and source of pollution -- but this very inefficiency is the reason why it now can be judiciously targeted for the major and massive improvements which are called for (and which are now possible).
• It is a sector which lends itself well to mapping and monitoring (i.e., IT-dependent feedback systems),
• It is an area of activity that is ripe for major and massive productive improvements,
• These improvements are going to be facilitated to a great extent by the application of state-of-the-art electronics and telecommunications technologies,
• Transport is a ubiquitous activity. It touches everybody and everything in modern society. Thus it is something on which decisions can be made by individuals, companies, groupings, etc., both on their own and in concert with others. It is this very universality that is important in laying the base for what has to happen next.
• Its intensely political. We consider this to be of particular importance, because it means that the process that we now commit to engage is going to have broadest impacts, visibility, and social impacts.

The systematic and massive application of information/telecommunications technologies to the transport sector offers enormous potential both for efficiency gains and resource reductions -- on a scale which is potentially on a par with the requirements of sustainability. There is major potential on the one hand for using the latest telecommunications and computer advances to make our transport systems ‘smarter’, and on the other to reduce the need for physical movements via such things as telework, telecommuting, teleconferencing, etc.

The transport/telecommunications interface is characterized by two broad types of interaction:

1. Situations where new and better telecommunications can actually substitute for certain types of movement,
2. Those where telecoms offers strategic supports which increases the productivity and throughput of the existing operators and arrangements.

Both of these technology strands need to be drawn on in order to achieve more sustainable transport systems.

Every time a citizen or group turns to electronics as a substitute for a physical trip, energy and resource savings on an order of one hundred to one or more are achieved. The right kinds of electronics and support arrangements can cut a company’s transport bills or help cities get two people instead of one into a taxi or car, and others to get to work by a short or no walk instead of clogging the highways. The is clearly the way to go to achieve a more sustainable transport system. The potential is particularly sharp in the area of short distance and commuter transport, but by no means limited to these. Almost all business groups and public sector agencies have enormous potential for efficiency and economic improvements in these areas.

Today we have cars out on the street with an average of only 1.3 or so persons aboard on average, harnessing only a few percent of their resource potential and often making trips which could be better served in other ways. There are also a huge number of empty or heavily underutilized trucks, taxis, buses and other vehicles out on the roads which could, with better information and other technologies and related logistic and organizational improvements, be carrying many more goods and people at greatly reduced levels of unit costs.

These improvements can make money for those who undertake them, save money for others who are over-spending under the current technologies and arrangements, and increase quality of life for many more. This is important, because without strong positive incentives nothing is going to get done within the time frame that concerns us here.

Telecommunications and related technology advances, while vital, will not alone suffice to do the job however. They will have to be combined with measures and approaches which in parallel ...

• Mobilize new forms of organization and activity scheduling to support reduced movement.
• Broaden the range of available, more sustainable and more effective alternative means of access.
• Reduce and limit the need for motorized displacements (especially the least efficient of these).
• Make better use of coordinated location policies to attenuate unnecessary physical movements

The potential for information technologies to help bring about more sustainable development is of course not limited to transport matters alone. We propose that the transport sector makes a fine starting point and highly useful focusing device for an sustainability program, but we must not lose sight of the fact that it is only part of the problem -- and part of the opportunity.

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Telework -- the subject of the first four articles in this edition -- provides a useful starting point in this consideration of the potential for the Information Society as a motor for sustainability. Telework is not only important for what it is as a leading edge manifestation of the Information Society, but it also has a role as an enabler, something which can help us to think creatively about the larger issues of managing the transition to a knowledge society. Here are some of the reasons why telework is worth having a close look at in this context:

• First, it is a transformation which is already well in progress and making its impacts felt with steadily increasing force.
• Second, its potential for transforming the face of society is considerable.
• Third, as with all of technology, this is not a wholly benevolent movement and that, while there is much scope for doing good, there are also substantial potential for negative impacts, both in general and on specific groups, regions, etc.
• Fourth, all these various developments are still only in their very early stages -- meaning that this is the time in which they can best be shaped.
• Fifth, while many important decisions are being taken each day which shape the future, in most cases the level of information and insight as yet available against which to take wise decisions from the vantage of sustainable development is in very short supply.
  

There can be no doubt that we stand today on the brink of a new order of technology that is already transforming the face of society and the economy. This presents a not-to-be-repeated leadership challenge and opportunity. Despite the fact that there is an enormous, in many ways even a dominant role for the private sector and a whole plethora of other actors and institutions to play in this broad area (the great bulk of the investment and activity is ultimately going to come from other than public sources) there is also a very important leadership responsibility from the vantage of society as a whole. This is a challenge which now needs to be met head on.

For a variety of reasons, these challenges and opportunities cannot be left solely to the pressures and preferences of private interests and unfettered market forces. There are important issues of community involved which require thoughtful and effective public leadership. This is, however, a most delicate task and should not be interpreted as a call for substituting public sector command-and-control decisions, technocratic intervention and/or taxpayer moneys for the energy and competence of the private sector which is certainly going to be the main instrumentality of this conversion.

The responsibility of the public sector will be to create an informed, responsible and convivial context for the dynamics of this transformation. If there were ever an occasion for sound information, wisdom and far-sighted leadership from the public sector, now is the time. And if policy makers and leaders at all the levels of society that are involved eventually "succeed" their relationship and role with telework, they should be well positioned to handle the remainder of the new technology policy issues which are ongoing as part of the Information Society, of which telework is but one part.

Much work remains to be done to improve the grasp of all concerned concerning these fundamental issues and trade-offs. The issues of telework, new communications advances, the changing shape of work, etc., all need to be approached and understood from a considerably more informed and profound background than presently prevails. The public sector at all levels of government and administration can take a major role in broadening and deepening the debate around these as yet poorly understood issues. New and powerful tools are now available to accomplish this. It is to be hoped that this teleconference will go a way toward further clarifying this.

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